Lately I've read quite a few rambling posts about how someone is gonna grind out living or even get rich from online poker. And then after ethusiastic start nothing happens one, two, three months... and you stop hearing anything from them anymore :) So here is what I think and my short poker story summary which might serve someone as an example and/or discourage from taking poker overly serious.
Tillerman got good bottomline once in his blog, when he still used to update it - absolutely anyone having average talent and better than average discipline can make it to six figures profit per year playing poker.
It is true. Its just that average discipline is so bad and initial expectations are so high that it constantly lead to extended tilt periods, overheating, disharmony and various digesting problems ;) You dont need make things happen in poker - let things happen. I didn't follow this rule all the time and maybe thats the reason why I'm playing at my current limits, and not two-three step higher, but anyway. Here is what happened during my first year of poker (i'm writing this from my memory without doublechecking with my previous posts, but exact details are not important anyway:)
2006
February-April: Created Pokerstars.com account, played mostly during lunch break playmoney tables, reading poker books (harrington, sklansky, few others).
May: Depostited first $50. Playing NL2 cash, $1.4 two table SnG.
June: Switched to $3R tourneys, $4.4 180man SnG, and as bankroll grew switched from NL10 to NL25 and to NL50 cash, which I usually played over my head. Bankroll built to ~$800, subscribed to pokerxfactor.com - amazing stuff which improved my game enormously. Clocking ~15h/week.
July: lost it all at NL100 cash, holidays, didnt play much poker at all.
August: same micro tourneys, NL25/50. Building slowly back up, but no real profit.
September: Deposited $600 to PartyPoker.com, started playing exclusively cash, NL25, with "20x bankroll for the new limit" rule.
October: moved up to NL50, NL100, first 4digit profit month, but did put in quite a lot of hours (~15-20h / week)
November: almost got bankrolled to NL200, but got into downswing, and without hesitation cashed out everything from PartyPoker, since there was huge decline in player number cause of US legislation anyway. Deposited $600 to PokerStars for their 10billionth hand celebration bonuses.
Dont remember when, but for two months: playing exclusively 1 table SnG. $5, then $10. Averaging ROI of 140%, built 4digit profit only from these. Extremely improved my tournament final table and 4man bubble play.
2007
January-April: much less hours (4-8h/week), taking a break from everything - finishing Master studies.
April-May: back to cash games, NL50/100 for reasonable profit. Still watching majority of the PXF videos :) 10-15h/week. GoldVIP.
June: cash NL100 games, solid 4digit profit. Occasional NL200. 12-15h/week.
July: big score in accidentally played $8R tournament for 3.3k which allowed me to move to NL200 with extremely safe bankroll. I was about to move up anyway though :) Good results in NL200. 12-15h/week. Very good profit. PlatinumVIP. Started playing cheap small live tournaments for practice.
August: Target bankroll reached. Playing NL400/NL600. 4-8h/week. Not really enough for PlatinumVIP - would need ~10-12h. For the first time showed a profit of my whole monthly sallary in one cash session :) Still have a quite long list of leaks in my cash game which I seek to fix :)
Moral of the story is that during all this time I didnt stop educational side of poker game - reading new books, articles, and all this pokerxfactor thing - it really helps to constantly reevaluate one's game and gives some fresh ideas. And thats important. Other thing is that routine poker usually is not profitable poker. I noticed myself, that putting much less hours nowadays really doesnt hurt my profit bottomline that much - profit comes from good play, creativity, and not from many hours. And it is hard to keep up A game all the time playing very many hours. Also, I think it is important to try out all the different kinds of poker - cash, SnG, HU, MTT, and different games (Holdem, Omaha, Stud etc). I kinda slack on this, but lately I started adding one NL25 PLO table to my usual cash tables and I was several buyins up after playing my very first 100 hands of this game :) I did read one article on PLO beforehands though, but that was it :) And I feel quite comfortable in any low-mid stakes SnG, MTT, and HU with all that practice.
So I think this is what could an average talent and average discipline dude expect during his first year of poker as a hobby activity. And I do believe quiting job right now and turning 100% pro I would make it to Tillerman's estimate. But who needs that - more money doesnt make ppl more happy - guy with 9mill is just as happy as guy with 10 ;) So dont worry, be happy :)